The 2025 Elections in Albania: How Does Low Voter Turnout and Political Fragmentation Affect the Final Outcome?

The 2025 general elections are taking place in a political context where voter participation and the presence of new political forces are expected to have a significant impact on the final result. Referring to the 2021 elections, where participation was around 46.3%, a further decline in participation to even lower levels could have direct consequences on the balance between the ruling party and the opposition.

Low Voter Turnout: Who Benefits?

Traditionally, low voter turnout tends to favor the ruling parties. The reason for this lies in the fact that governing parties have access to resources, local structures, and clientelist networks, which ensure a steady mobilization of their electoral base. In contrast, the opposition, lacking enthusiasm, efficient organization, and the profile of a unifying leader, may fail to adequately activate its electorate.

On the other hand, if participation falls below the 2021 average, there are reasons to believe that this decline will not be distributed proportionally between the camps. A significant portion of voters from the current government, who do not see any near-term changes or have fallen into apathy, may choose not to vote. In this case, the outcome would not reflect the merits of any political force as much as the accumulated frustration.

The Impact of New Political Forces: Fragmentation or Reform?

The 2025 elections are being held in the presence of several new parties which, though small, could significantly influence the final result:

• Partia Mundësia: Positioned as a right-wing party, it targets voters dissatisfied with the traditional Democratic Party. It could channel opposition votes but risks failing to surpass the electoral threshold, thus damaging the opposition's arithmetic.
• Shqipëria Bëhet: Also right-wing, this party presents itself as a conservative institutional alternative with a technocratic profile. It risks further splitting the opposition camp in key districts.
• Levizja Bashkë: A left-wing party with a progressive, civic profile. If it manages to secure a mandate in areas like Tirana, it could hurt the Socialist Party by attracting disillusioned left-wing voters.

These parties are not yet national players, but their impact in specific regions could be decisive. The regional proportional system makes mandates sensitive to fragmentation, as votes for parties that do not meet the threshold are indirectly transferred to the larger winners.

A Possible Scenario

If voter turnout falls below 42% and the new parties gain an average of 3-7% each, the most likely scenario would be:

• The Socialist Party (PS) maintains a majority, not necessarily due to an increase in its own votes, but because of the damage inflicted on the opposition by internal fragmentation.
• The Democratic Party (PD)/PL gain fewer seats, even though the total votes from the right could be larger than that of the PS.
• Levizja Bashkë enters as a new urban force and increases pressure on the PS for transparency and reform.

Conclusion

The 2025 elections may not produce an absolute winner in terms of moral legitimacy, but they will clearly reflect citizen disenchantment and the need for political reform. Low voter turnout, combined with vote fragmentation, could lead to a result where the idea of the "winner of the popular will" is clearly lost, and victory is achieved simply through inertia and the arithmetic of the system.

In this climate, the results will not only be the product of political programs but also of abstention and the tactical distribution of dissatisfaction.